I have been following the GOP primaries like never before. I have watched every debate (there’s been 6 or 7 I think) and have been reading about them every day. The main reason I’m following so closely this time around is because I’m a big supporter of Mitt Romney.

I have been really impressed with how well Romney has done considering his lack of name-recognition. He’s pretty far back in the national polls, but the party nominees aren’t decided by a national vote, but are done state by state over time (up until Super Tuesday, when more than 20 states will pick a nominee for each party).

Romney is a smart person and has showed his intelligence and capabilities by focusing on the first two states to vote, Iowa and New Hampshire. Yesterday, CNN reported the most recent poll in Iowa put Romney 23 points ahead of the next contender, Giuliani. That is simply remarkable. The same story also mentions Judd Gregg, a 3-term NH Senator and former NH Governer, endorsing Romney. In NH, Romney’s lead isn’t as large, close to 10 points, but it’s large enough that it won’t be easy for another candidate to take the lead. After New Hampshire, its Michigan, where Romney will likely win, and then South Carolina where he’s in second place.

Opponents say that Romney’s leading in those early states because he has poured so much money in advertising in them. Well, imagine the return that investment is going to give him when he gets all that free press after winning the early states before Super Tuesday… probably millions upon millions of dollars worth (my SEO readers understand this concept — how investing in paid advertising can result in a lot of free or “organic” advertising). Also, to dispute his opponents, you can’t lead the polls just because you’ve advertised, you also have to have to have a good “product”, have a good “offer”, and you have to target the right people (think 40/40/20 rule).

Yesterday, Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard, published an article on how the Republican race is most-likely a two-man race between Romney (who leads in the early states) and Giuliani (who leads in the national polls). The article paints the two most likely scenarios, though also recognizing that anything could happen between now and Jan 3rd. Either Romney or Giuliani.

One thing that the article doesn’t mention is Romney’s inevitable “Mormon speech.” Many evangelicals that back Romney want him to give a speech similar to JFK’s where he said that he wouldn’t take orders from the Pope. Romney hasn’t ever said that he’s going to do it but it he probably will. Yesterday when he was interviewed by Sean Hannity, he said that “the time may come” for him to address his faith. I think he’ll do it, he just wants to time it right, either just before the Iowa caucus or just before the first southern state votes (South Carolina). That will give him even more free publicity just before Super Tuesday.